2025 PGA Championship Fantasy Golf Picks: Expert Predictions for Quail Hollow

It’s PGA Championship week, and we’ve got some expert fantasy picks to help you win your office pool or compete in our PGA Championship Fantasy contest for a chance to win incredible golf prizes.

We turned to Justin Ray for advice – arguably the foremost golf statistician in the modern game. He tracks, maps and analyzes golf data at the highest level. His stats have been used by everyone from ESPN to the PGA TOUR to Golf Channel and the Solheim Cup Team. In addition to his role as Head of Content for the Twenty First Group, he also contributes to TGL.

Justin has a personal connection to the PGA, too. His father, Mike, is a PGA of America Golf Professional and the Association’s current Regional Director, as well as the former Executive Director of the Southern Texas PGA Section. Follow Justin on X @JustinRayGolf for the most mind-blowing golf stats you’ll ever see.

We could go on about his impressive resume, but let’s jump into his picks for the week and why you should choose them.

When Jordan Spieth called Quail Hollow “Rory McIlroy Country Club,” he wasn’t far off. Since Rory made his Quail Hollow debut in 2010, he’s been 102-under-par on the course during PGA TOUR events – a staggering 55 shots better than anyone else. Rickie Fowler, in second place, is 47-under.

Quail Hollow has been dubbed a “Drawer’s Paradise,” and we all know what Rory can do when shaping draws off the tee. His ability to generate spin, speed and distance allows him to overpower the course.

That dominance isn’t limited to par-5 scoring – where he’s unsurprisingly ranked No. 1 in all-time scoring on Quail Hollow’s longest holes. It’s actually on the par 4s where Rory truly separates himself. 

Throughout his career at Quail Hollow, he’s 9-under on the par 4s. To put that in perspective, the next three closest players on the par 5 scoring leaders list are 12-over, 24-over and 43-over on the par fours.

Simply put, Rory has been able to dissect this course, no matter which hole he’s playing.

Why is Rory so dominant at Quail Hollow? Johnson Wagner, a member at the club, recently shared an interesting analogy on a podcast. He compared the course’s recent changes to Augusta’s efforts to “Tigerproof” the course by making it longer. Instead of leveling the playing field, those adjustments actually magnified the advantage for power players. We’re seeing a similar effect with Rory’s continued success at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas is a different player this year compared to last season. He’s a flag-rattling kind of guy when he’s at the peak of his game, and we caught a glimpse of that with his incredible round at The Players earlier this year. Currently, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach – a remarkable improvement from two seasons ago when he was outside the top 30. That’s not where a great iron player like JT belongs.

This season, he leads the PGA TOUR in proximity to the hole from 50-125 yards, proving just how dialed in he is with his wedges. Seeing him break through with a win at Harbour Town was a strong indicator of his form, and he came just a few shots shy of making it back-to-back victories.

Coming into a major championship with his last two finishes being 1st and T2 is impressive. The key this week will be his putting – that’s the real test. Last season, he ranked among the worst putters on tour, but this year, he’s climbed into the top 20.

He also has good memories here, having won the PGA Championship the last time it was held at this venue in 2017. He putted brilliantly that week, and if his flat stick cooperates again, don’t be surprised if he’s in contention on Sunday.

All metrics point to Xander’s recent struggles being linked to the intercostal strain and rib injury he’s been dealing with. It’s clear we’re waiting on him to get healthy before he can rediscover the form that led to his two major championships last year. 

He’s currently ranked 157th in Strokes Gained Off the Tee, an unusual spot for a player known for his driving prowess. Despite that, his approach play remains solid, and he putted well last week at the TRUIST en route to a T11 finish. 

While there are signs of progress, he’s not at the top of my list this week. But hey, he’s the defending champion and it’s hard to overlook his performance last year at Valhalla, where he hit 60 greens in regulation – tying 2000 Tiger Woods for the most GIRs during a PGA Championship in the last 40 years. 

Quail Hollow will be a tougher setup, but that doesn’t mean Xander can’t be a factor on Sunday. Anytime you tie 2000 Tiger in any stat, you can’t be counted out.

I was preparing my notes for a podcast the other day, and next to his name I just wrote: “He’s Scottie ‘Effing’ Scheffler.” Very analytical and insightful, right?

Look, it’s simple. The last time he played he sprinted away from the field, winning the CJ Cup Byron Nelson by eight shots. Sure, that was his first win of the year, and while his underlying metrics aren’t scorching the earth the way they’ve been the past three years, he’s still leading the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Approach.

I’d be shocked if he wasn’t in contention – he’s practically a lock for top 10. He’s leading the world in major championship scoring average over the last four seasons. There’s a reason he’s held the No. 1 spot for so long – he’s a complete player 

From an metrics standpoint, this pick is as solid as they come. Reed finished second at the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow and notched a couple top 10 finishes here over the years. Furthermore, he ranks in the top 10 all-time for scoring average and bogey avoidance at this venue. 

In 2017, these greens ranked the toughest to hit on the PGA TOUR and produced the most difficult scrambling rate. When the PGA Championship comes to the Queen City, you’re looking at a short game showdown. Everyone’s going to miss greens – chipping, pitching and bunker play will be crucial. Few players thrive in those conditions better than Patrick Reed.

He is my pick to win this week. 

In compiling my research, his statistics stood out above the rest. The last two times he played Quail Hollow (2018 and 2021), he putted brilliantly, averaging 1.74 Strokes Gained: Putting per round in those events. 

From 10 to 15 feet, in both of those visits to Quail, he converted putts at a rate of 64%. Since 2018, the field average from that distance at Quail Hollow is about 29%. That’s a staggering advantage.

If I were in the press room this week, the first thing I’d do is share those stats with him and ask “What is it that you see and love so much when it comes to these greens?”

Over the years at the PGA Championship, he’s done everything but break through for the win. Since 2020, he has the lowest scoring average in this event, leads in birdies or better per round and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. On top of that, he has all those same advantages we love about Rory – power off the tee and the ability to draw the ball on command.

I’m high on him this week.

From an analytics standpoint, Shane Lowry has elevated himself to a different class of player this season. He’s near the top in all the key metrics – whether it’s Strokes Gained, ball striking or putting, his game has improved across the board.

He’s 3rd in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 4th in Strokes Gained: Total (a significant jump from 40th last season) and 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach. He consistently performs well on the Florida Swing, and I love seeing that translate to challenging major championship conditions. His approach play is often underestimated, and hitting greens will be critical at Quail Hollow.

There’s every reason to believe he could be a factor this week – the analytics certainly support that.

This darkhorse name was thrown at me and caught me by surprise – but in a good way. After leaving LIV, Eugenio is one of the first players to attempt to play his way back on the DP World Tour and PGA TOUR. 

He’s obviously got buckets of talent. He won the DP World Tour’s Hero Indian Open in March on a sponsor's exemption and earned status on that tour. His subsequent play allowed him to qualify for this week’s PGA Championship, thanks to a top three performance on the DP World Tour’s Asian Swing.

In recent years, we’ve seen a growing trend of young players contending in their debut or early-career majors. Ludvig Aberg almost won The Masters in his first major, and Collin Morikawa won two in first seven major attempts – the fastest to do so since Bobby Jones. 

More and more, we’re seeing young players competing for big titles earlier on their career arcs.

Admittedly I don’t have a lot of data on these players. However, given my dad’s ties to the PGA of America, I know there are great players throughout the ranks. The clear choice is Michael Block, given his outrageous performance in 2023 at Oak Hill. Fun fact: that same year, we both played 100 holes of golf at Pebble Beach’s par-3 Hay Course to fundraise for Youth on Course.

Beyond Block, look to Tyler Collet, the winner of this year’s PGA Professional Professional Championship. He dominated the field and cruised to victory by 10 shots. Clearly, he’s in great form. Plus, he’s qualified for eight PGA TOUR events in his career and made one cut.

Another name worth mentioning is Justin Hicks. He made more than 100 career starts on the PGA TOUR and earned over $3 million. After injuries derailed his playing career, he shifted his focus to teaching – but his wealth of experience can’t be overlooked.

I’m a fan of “Cashmere” Keith Mitchell this week. He may not be my pick to win, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him hoist the trophy. 

He’ll likely have the highest percentage of “Round 1 Leader” prop bets, and for a good reason. His ability to open tournaments strong this year has been incredible. In his last five starts, after the first round, he’s been positioned first, first, second, second and first place. What bodes well for him: Last week, he carried that solid play across four rounds and was in contention on Sunday.

He also has a solid history here. His 70.2 scoring average is third best all-time among players with at least 12 rounds at Quail Hollow. 

Max was going through a swing change early in the year, and that’s reflected in his on-course performance. He’s been open about the challenges with his swing, but he certainly gained a confidence boost entering majors by contending at The Masters in 2024.

He’s in the evolutionary stage of his career, where he’s felt the fire of competing in major championships. If he gets himself into contention again, he’ll be more comfortable in that situation.

I’m leaning a little bit away from the metrics and data with Max, as he’s yet to put it all together on the course this season. However, the fact that he’s playing a little better and has a strong history on this course – he won the Wells Fargo Championship in 2019 – suggests he’s certainly talented enough to contend. Still, he’s not at the top of my list.

We all know what Wyndham can do off the tee – he’s an absolute TrackMan darling with crazy clubhead speed. However, there’s some risk in this pick.

In the 12 major championships he’s played outside of his U.S. Open win at LACC, he’s missed seven cuts and has zero top 30 finishes. I found that pretty staggering. 

He’s not playing the same level of golf as he was last year when he finished runner-up to Scottie Scheffler in back-to-back weeks at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass. But he has won here before, and his ability to carry the ball long distances should help him at Quail Hollow.